Märkte & Kurse

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Original-Research: Smartbroker Holding AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Smartbroker Holding AG

Unternehmen: Smartbroker Holding AG
ISIN: DE000A2GS609

Anlass der Studie: Research study (Anno)
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 17.70 EUR
Letzte Ratingänderung: 
Analyst: Marcel Goldmann, Cosmin Filker

FY 2022 closed with robust business performance and realignment of fintech
business; Smartbroker relaunch should provide significant revenue and
earnings growth going forward; forecasts and target price lowered; Buy
rating maintained
 
Business development in the past financial year 2022
 
On 16 March 2022, Smartbroker Holding AG (Smartbroker) announced its
preliminary business figures for the past financial year 2022. According to
these figures, the group was able to close the past financial year with an
increase in HGB turnover of 9.5% to EUR 52.80 million (previous year: EUR 48.20
million) despite a difficult market environment. Compared to the pro forma
revenue (pro forma consolidation of Smartbroker AG, formerly
wallstreet:online capital AG, as of 1 January 2022, instead of regular HGB
consolidation as of 1 August 2022) of the previous year in the amount of EUR
56.80 million, however, there was a moderate decline in revenue.
 
At the earnings level, EBITDA adjusted for new customer acquisition costs
for Smartbroker of around EUR 4.00 million (previous year: EUR 13.10 million)
was EUR 13.10 million (previous year: EUR 17.10 million), which fell by 25.1%
compared to the previous year.
 
Despite the continued high investments in the development and expansion of
the brokerage business, which, in addition to development costs incurred,
primarily related to marketing and personnel and the completed realignment
of the fintech division, EBITDA after customer acquisition costs rose
significantly to EUR 9.10 million (previous year: EUR 3.90 million). This
significant increase in earnings was mainly due to the decline in customer
acquisition costs relating to the Smartbroker (approx. EUR 4.0 million in
2022 vs. EUR 13.1 million in 2021).
 
All in all, the company fell slightly short of the target corridor of the
guidance adjusted in August 2022 (revenue EUR 54.0 million to EUR 57.0 million,
operating EBITDA EUR 10.0 million to EUR 12.0 million). Our revenue (EUR 62.33
million) and earnings (EBITDA of EUR 10.04 million) forecast was not
achieved, in particular due to the postponement of the Smartbroker
relaunch. Our estimates were still made on the basis of a Smartbroker 2.0
market launch in 2022.
 
The moderate decline in Group revenue resulted in particular from a
declining business volume in the transaction business. In this business
area, segment revenues fell by 12.0% to EUR 18.70 million (previous year: EUR
21.30 million) compared to the previous year, mainly due to a decline in
trading activity (18 trades in 2022 vs. 29 trades in 2021 per customer) of
brokerage customers.
 
On the other hand, despite a reduced marketing budget and historically
difficult capital market conditions, the company was again able to increase
the number of securities accounts managed to 267,000 by the end of 2022
(previous year: 246,000 accounts). In the same period, the assets under
custody grew to EUR 9.20 billion (previous year: EUR 8.80 billion).
 
Furthermore, in the traditional business (media/portal business), segment
revenues of EUR 34.10 million were almost stable compared to the previous
year (PY: EUR 35.50 million). In our opinion, long-term contracts with
financial institutions, advertising agencies and the B2B software business
(ARIVA.DE AG) contributed to this robust development. In addition,
according to the company, the precise targeting of the portals on
above-average attractive readers also led to a stable business development.
 
Smartbroker Group outlook for the 2023 financial year
 
The Smartbroker management is positive about the current 2023 financial
year. The company expects a consolidated turnover of between EUR 51.0 million
and EUR 56.0 million and an EBITDA (operating EBITDA) adjusted for new
customer acquisition costs of between EUR 1.0 million and EUR 4.0 million. An
even better operating earnings outlook is countered by the extensive costs
expected by the management for the development of the Smartbroker 2.0 and
additional migration costs (planned for the second half of 2023).
 
At the end of 2022, Smartbroker announced that it would cooperate with
Baader Bank for the transaction processing and the custody account
management for Smartbroker 2.0 going forward. In addition, the development
work for Smartbroker 2.0 has progressed according to plan in recent months.
The company expects further investments of around EUR 6.0 million in the
current year in order to complete the Smartbroker 2.0 project, which is
currently being implemented, and is fully financed for this purpose. Gross
cash holdings amounted to more than EUR 27.0 million at the end of 2022.
 
The relaunch of the Smartbroker is planned for mid-2023. After the
scheduled reduction of marketing expenses for the current year 2023
(planned marketing expenses of EUR 2.0 million), the Group intends to ramp up
new customer marketing again afterwards. The migration of existing
Smartbroker customers to the new infrastructure is scheduled to begin
shortly after the product launch in summer 2023. According to the company,
the realignment of the transaction business should contribute to the
Smartbroker becoming the group's main profitable growth driver from 2024.
 
GBC assessment and evaluation
 
Based on the postponement of the Smartbroker 2.0 introduction and the
realignment of the brokerage business (change of partner bank, etc.), we
are adjusting our previous estimates for the current financial year and
also doing so for the following years. Against the background of the
current difficult market environment, we have deliberately chosen our new
estimates conservative.
 
For the current financial year 2023, we now expect revenues of EUR 52.70
million (previously: EUR 84.02 million) and an EBITDA of EUR 1.04 million
(previously: EUR 14.05 million) and are thus at the lower end of the forecast
range communicated by the company. For the following financial year 2024,
we calculate revenues of EUR 66.75 million (previously: EUR 98.57 million) and
EBITDA of EUR 13.97 million (previously: EUR 28.73 million). In the 2025
financial year, which we have included in our detailed estimation period
for the first time, revenue and EBITDA should continue to increase to EUR
76.30 million and EUR 20.68 million respectively.
 
Overall, we continue to see the Smartbroker Group well positioned to expand
its market position in both business segments (Portal Business, Brokerage
Business). The planned introduction of Smartbroker 2.0 (including apps and
product enhancements) should significantly increase the company's future
growth momentum from the 2024 financial year onwards. Due to the high
scalability of the brokerage business model, the expected growth in
earnings should also lead to a disproportionate increase in Group
profitability.
 
Based on our lowered estimates, we have also lowered our previous target
price to EUR 17.70 (previously: EUR 37.55 per share) within the framework of
our DCF valuation model. In addition to the reduced forecasts, the rise in
the cost of capital as a result of the increase in the risk-free interest
rate (from 0.40% to now 1.50%) has led to a price target reduction. In view
of the current share price level, we thus continue to assign a 'Buy' rating
and see significant share price potential.
 

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/26641.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,5b,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:

http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Datum und Zeitpunkt der Fertigstellung der Studie: 27.03.2023 (9:00 Uhr)   
Datum und Zeitpunkt der ersten Weitergabe: 27.03.2023 (10:30 Uhr)
Gültigkeit des Kursziels: bis max. 31.12.2023

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------


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