Märkte & Kurse

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Original-Research: 123fahrschule SE - from NuWays AG

17.07.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to 123fahrschule SE

     Company Name:                123fahrschule SE
     ISIN:                        DE000A2P4HL9

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 6.1
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Philipp Sennewald

Solid H1 despite a tough market environment

Yesterday, 123f released preliminary H1'26 figures, which we regard as a
solid print given the ongoing demand vacuum ahead of the driving school
reform. In detail:

H1 group sales increased slightly to EUR 13.0m (H1'25: EUR 12.9m; eNuW: EUR
13.5m), slightly below estimates but nonetheless standing out against a
market in which numerous peers are reporting declining volumes as
prospective learners continue to postpone enrollment ahead of the reform
taking effect on 1 January 2027. Reported EBITDA came in at c. EUR 0.85m,
burdened by planned growth investments, while adj. EBITDA improved 12% yoy
to c. EUR 1.1m (H1'25: EUR 1.0m; eNuW: EUR 1.0m), confirming the underlying
operating leverage of the model.

Core business improves profitability in a soft market. Sales and EBITDA in
the core driving school segment increased yoy, validating the operational
clean-up and efficiency measures taken and in FY25. The transformation
towards a structurally leaner setup is progressing well. With a full
transition of theory lessons to e-learning, roughly half of the existing
lease contracts have already been terminated, improving scalability with a
lasting margin tailwind into FY27e.

Foerst with high H2 visibility. The simulator subsidiary saw a slightly
weaker H1 against a tough comparison base. Yet, based on the current order
backlog, management expects a significantly stronger H2. Notably, the legal
recognition of simulators for mandatory training components from 1 January
2027 is already triggering a tangible pick-up in demand, as driving schools
front-load investments ahead of the new regulatory framework. This is in
line with the pull-forward dynamics we outlined in our previous update
following the publication of the draft legislation.

FahrerWerk enters asset-light expansion mode. The subsidiary signed its
first cooperation partner, adding five locations (Hamburg, Hannover, Erfurt,
Halle/Leipzig, Mörfelden-Walldorf). FahrerWerk provides brand, training
concept and digital infrastructure while the partner carries local
operations and site infrastructure, allowing the network to scale without
meaningful own investments. While the H1 contribution remained muted due to
long course durations and lead times in participant acquisition and funding
processes, a noticeable pick-up in utilisation and registrations should
become visible in H2. Management hence reiterated its long-term target of a
nationwide network of 650+ locations and c. 1,200 instructors by 2029,
implying a market share of c. 10%.

FY26 guidance confirmed. Management reiterated its FY26 EBITDA guidance of EUR
1.5-2.5m (eNuW: EUR 1.9m), which looks achievable given the operational
tailwinds described as well as the solid H1. Looking at our FY26e sales
estimate of EUR 29.1m, the achievability of the implied H2 sales of c. EUR 16m
will largely depend on the timing of Foerst deliveries and FahrerWerk
acceleration.
Overall, the release confirms the the equity story as the company is
successfully bridging the pre-reform demand trough while building the
infrastructure to capture the post-reform acceleration. To break it down,
123f looks set to become a main beneficiary of the upcoming reform, which
should translate into meaningful market share gains.
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 6.10 based on DCF.


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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
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Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2367290 17.07.2026 CET/CEST

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