Märkte & Kurse

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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG

16.04.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE

     Company Name:                ZEAL Network SE
     ISIN:                        DE000ZEAL241

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 80
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Simon Keller

Driving diversification

Traumautoverlosung brings ZEAL's proprietary charity-raffle format into the
premium car category, with the first draw centred on a Porsche 911 GT3 RS
worth EUR 349k. The launch fits neatly into ZEAL's diversification strategy,
as proprietary formats broaden the group's offering beyond lottery
brokerage, reduce dependence on jackpot cycles and support structurally
stronger economics. ZEAL's entire lottery business delivered a 17.7%
billings margin in 2025, while proprietary raffle formats such as
Traumhausverlosung are seen to carry c. 43% billings margin (eNuW).
Execution risk also looks manageable, given ZEAL's successful scale-up of
Traumhausverlosung.

The first raffle is structured with 250,000 tickets at EUR 9.90, implying c. EUR
2.5m billings and c. EUR 1.1m revenue potential (eNuW, see p.2 for details),
which remains modest in isolation. The attraction lies in ZEAL's ability to
scale the format over time. In our medium-term base case, we assume 300,000
tickets and c. EUR 1.3m revenue per draw at full sell-through. This would
translate into c. EUR 11.5m revenue at 10 annual draws and 90% sell-through,
equivalent to c. 5% of 2026e group sales. We therefore see
Traumautoverlosung as an incremental growth driver (partly reflected in
estimates).

A recent whitepaper on the UK prize draw market offers a useful external
read-across for this strategy (source: Rokker, iGB):

  * Younger demographics. The format is more lifestyle- and
    aspiration-driven than the classic lottery product and appears well
    suited to reach younger customer groups (incl. Gen Z and millennials).

  * Appealing customer acquisition costs. Low ticket prices and emotionally
    strong prizes should support conversion, although transferability to
    ZEAL seems still limited at this stage, in our view.

  * High cross-sell potential. The most relevant datapoint is the strong
    behavioural overlap: 88% of prize draw participants also engage in
    commercial gambling activities and lotteries over a 12-month period.

Q1 26 preview: ZEAL is due to report Q1 on 6 May (see p.2 for details). We
expect a financially unexciting quarter, driven by the absence of peak
jackpots in Lotto and EJ. Still, sales look set to improve 8% yoy to EUR 55.3m
(broadly stable qoq), thanks to a growing monthly active user base. EBITDA
is expected to decline 15% yoy to EUR 15.1m (broadly stable qoq), reflecting a
demanding comp, as Q1 25 still benefited from active customer cohorts
acquired in Q4 24, an unusually strong jackpot quarter. Overall, we would
not overinterpret Q1, as the quarter says little about ZEAL's full earnings
power. It does, however, show that the business remains sequentially stable
even in an unfavourable jackpot environment, while still funding new growth
initiatives such as Traumautoverlosung.

BUY, PT EUR 80, based on DCF. - continued -


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NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
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++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2309440 16.04.2026 CET/CEST

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