Märkte & Kurse

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Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG

15.04.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

     Company Name:                tonies SE
     ISIN:                        LU2333563281

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 14.5
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Christian Sandherr

tonies fires on all cylinders; PT Up

tonies released final FY25 figures and its FY26 guidance, underpinning the
company's position as the category leader of screen-free entertainment for
kids with the largest customer base worldwide.

FY25 group revenues surged 31% (+36% cc) to EUR 630m, with every single market
posting double-digit growth, carried by the launch of the Toniebox 2 (TB2),
the introduction of new product categories (My First Tonies, Tonieplay) and
a strong international push (North America +40% cc, RoW +68% cc). More
importantly, these impressive growth rates don't come at the expense of
profitability: the adj. EBITDA margin expanded 1.1pp to 8.6%, driven by a
margin-accretive mix shift toward Tonies figures (+37% yoy, now 71% of
revenue) and lower fulfilment (wholesale expansion), licensing (higher
tonies originals share) and lower COGS (improved sourcing).

The TB2 launch is a structural catalyst. With an ever expanding installed
base (11.8m total boxes sold so far) tonies creating a growing and
increasingly recurring revenue opportunity through Tonies figure sales. This
is especially true for the TB2 as it targets a much broader age range.

The international expansion story remains one of the most compelling aspects
of the investment case. North America continues to broaden beyond
distribution wins at Target and Walmart, with DTC momentum and launches like
the Ms. Rachel Tonie demonstrating genuine brand depth. Tariff headwinds
were absorbed through supply chain agility and selective price increases. In
France, tonies became the fastest-growing preschool brand in the country,
while the UK installed base crossed 1 million boxes underscoring the
repeatability of tonies' market entry playbook.

The FY26 guidance. Management expects >20% cc revenue growth to >EUR 760m
(eNuW: EUR +26%), >30% cc in North America (eNuW: 32%), and an adj. EBITDA
margin of 9-11% (eNuW: 10%). On the margin side, this implies up to 2.4pp of
further expansion from a base where cost discipline is already embedded
driven by operating leverage, ecosystem monetization (Tonieplay,
accessories), and the compounding attach rate economics of a growing
installed base.

The FCF dip to EUR -12m (from EUR 33m in FY24) was strategic due to significant
inventory build-ups to maximize the TB2 (most significant innovation since
2016), Tonieplay, My First Tonies and Cuddle Tonies launch windows. Over the
course of FY26e, this should somewhat normalize (eNuW: EUR 30m in FY26e).
Importantly, the company's balance sheet comfortably supports this thanks to
EUR 56m of net cash and EUR 138m of available cash (incl. unused credit lines).

tonies remains a textbook example for a success story. Since 2019, group
revenues grew at a 36% CAGR while reaching solid margins and improving cash
generation. Yet, the growth story is far from over. While Toniebox
activations already span more than 100 countries, tonies has so far pursued
dedicated launches in only a handful of markets. Yet the results wherever it
has done so have been impressive. This suggests meaningful untapped
potential from further country rollouts in the mid-term, with additional
detail expected at the Capital Markets Day on June 18th in London.

We hence confirm our BUY rating with a raised EUR 14.5 (old: EUR 14) PT based on
DCF as we raise our long-term EBIT margin to 11%.


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NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2308502 15.04.2026 CET/CEST

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