Märkte & Kurse

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Original-Research: Global Fashion Group S.A. - from NuWays AG

30.04.2026 / 18:13 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to Global Fashion Group S.A.

     Company Name:                Global Fashion Group S.A.
     ISIN:                        LU2010095458

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 1.0
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Christian Sandherr

Q1 results confirm the positive margin trajectory; BUY

GFG reported Q1 group NMV of EUR 215m, down 3% yoy on constant currency. Sales
of EUR 138m were down 4.3% yoy (cc). While the top line remains soft, broadly
in line with our cautious H1 expectations on the back of a muted consumer
sentiment in ANZ and Brazil, the margin story is the real takeaway in our
view. The group delivered an adjusted EBITDA margin of -3.8% vs. -7.3% in Q1
2025, a 3.5pp improvement driven by cost discipline and a gross margin of
46.5% (+0.5pp). This clearly underpins the company's positive bottom-line
momentum.

Customers: quality over quantity. Active customers declined 4.8% yoy to 7.2
million, but order frequency rose 1.9% and average order value increased
5.2%. This is a familiar and healthy pattern as GFG is shedding low-value
shoppers while its engaged base spends more per visit. The KPI mix is
consistent with a maturing marketplace model where marketplace take-rates
and platform services increasingly drive economics, rather than sheer
volume.

Gross margin expansion continues. At 46.5% in Q1, gross margin is up
meaningfully yoy and above the FY24 level of 44.9%. This reflects the
ongoing mix shift toward asset-light marketplace (which reached 42% of NMV
at end-Q1 2026), reduced discounting, and a leaner inventory profile. With
the marketplace share likely to continue growing through 2026, further gross
margin improvement is structurally embedded, in our view.

Regional divergence persists. In Q1, ANZ remains the growth engine,
delivering +3.5% cc NMV growth with active customers up 3.7% yoy to 2.0m.
LATAM (NMV -4.3% cc) was impacted by a weaker consumer sentiment in the
regions key market, Brazil. SEA continues to be the drag, with NMV down
12.3% cc and active customers falling 15.1% to 1.8m, still the most
challenged part of the portfolio, though the rate of decline continues to
gradually ease. Importantly, GFG has already implemented several measures
(e.g. streamlined product and brand assortment, increased marketplace and
service revenues and sharpened customer proposition), which should allow the
region to return to profitable growth within the next one to two years.

Management reaffirmed its FY26 guidance for cc NMV growth in the range of
-4% to +4% yoy (eNuW: 0.8%) and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 15-25m (eNuW: EUR 19m).
The guidance had been set with an explicit acknowledgement of softer H1
trading, meaning Q1 has come in as expected. A materially positive H2
remains the base case and is unaffected by today's release.

Thesis intact, re-rating catalysts in sight. The investment case of GFG is
based on three pillars: (1) a structural margin improvement driven by
marketplace mix shift and cost rightsizing, (2) a return to top-line growth
creating operating leverage and (3) a achieving positive NFCF. Importantly,
all three pillars are already in motion; FY25 was the first year with
positive adj. EBITDA, cash burn was significantly decreased and growth has
returned in two out of three regions.

With EUR 86m in net cash and a negative enterprise value, the market continues
to price in an outcome that the operational data simply does not support. We
hence confirm our BUY rating with an unchanged EUR 1.00 PT based on DCF.

You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=fc0041011256d12cb17d27c4dd608afc
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2319660 30.04.2026 CET/CEST

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