Märkte & Kurse

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Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG

01.08.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

     Company Name:                MLP SE
     ISIN:                        DE0006569908

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     from:                        01.08.2025
     Target price:                EUR 13.00
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Henry Wendisch

Q2 preliminary EBIT out, no cause for headaches.

Topic: Yesterday, MLP announced its preliminary Q2 EBIT to arrive at only EUR
5m but confirmed its FY25 guidance. Here's our view:

In a seasonally weak second quarter, MLP has reported a preliminary EBIT of
EUR 5m, which is "significantly below" the prior year figure (Q2'24 EBIT: EUR
11.7m) and triggered therefore the legal obligation to ad-hoc this
information. However, the EBIT figure should not be a big surprise and no
reason for headaches for several reasons:

Seasonally weak second quarters are the norm at MLP. In the past, the second
quarter is seasonally weak and have low operating leverage (seasonally lower
sales with stable fixed costs). The FY share of Q2 EBITs' usually ranges
between 5-10% of the FY EBIT (ex performance fees), showing the minor
importance of Q2. On the other hand, Q1 ("non-life quarter") and Q4
("old-age quarter") traditionally carry a larger revenue and earnings share
and are thus much more important for MLP's FY results.

Absence of performance fees in Q2. FERI's funds should not have triggered
meaningful performance fees in Q2'25. However, the comparable base of Q2'24
had a positive EUR 5.4m performance fee contribution, which alone explains a
negative EUR 3.5m EBIT effect yoy (eNuW, assuming a 65% incremental EBIT
margin of performance fees).

Lower interest rate environment. Also unsurprisingly, MLP's banking business
should have yielded a lower net interest income (NIC) in Q2'25 (eNuW: EUR
11.2, down by EUR 3m or 21% yoy) than in Q2'24. Here, we estimate a 85%
incremental EBIT margin on the NIC, which implies another EUR 2.5m negative
EBIT effect yoy.

RE recovery does not come over night. On the other hand, the lower interest
rate environment should foster the RE business of MLP. However, this
business cannot be switched on or off over night but takes time to show
improving results and to make up for the decline in the banking business.
Here, for the segment "Deutschland.Immobilien", we expect a positive, but
under proportionate rise in EBIT from EUR -4m in Q2'24 to EUR -2m in Q2'25e,
thus posing a positive EUR 2m EBIT effect yoy.

Temporarily higher IT costs. Current IT projects should have also led to
temporarily higher OPEX, which we estimate in the ballpark of EUR 3m, further
burdening Q2 EBIT. Moreover, the timing seemed unfavorable, as they have
been recognized in MLP's seasonally weakest quarter, in our view.

The sum of all effects described above fully explain why the Q2 EBIT came in
at EUR 5m (vs EUR 11.7m in Q2´24). Apart from the higher IT costs, we had
already anticipated the effects, in our Q2 EBIT estimates of EUR 7-8m.

However, the fact that MLP simultaneously confirmed the guidance (EBIT: EUR
100-110m), should also support our view, that this ad-hoc should not be a
concern. Consequently, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged PT
of EUR 13.00, based on FCFY and SOTP.



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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2178100 01.08.2025 CET/CEST

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