Märkte & Kurse

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Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG

29.04.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

     Company Name:                tonies SE
     ISIN:                        LU2333563281

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 14.5
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Christian Sandherr

Conference feedback: Investment case in full swing

We hosted tonies at our Madrid conference. The key takeways fully underpin
our positive view on the investment case:

US expansion, a textbook example for execution. North America sales have
compounded at a ~60% CAGR since 2022, reaching EUR 276m in FY25, and we expect
constant-currency growth of 32% this year. Retail execution is a key driver:
tonies is now listed in every Target store with shelf space recently
increased by 50%, only few brands command more real shelf space in the toys
section. Walmart coverage already stands at roughly half of all locations,
still leaving meaningful room to grow. In the US (but also UK), TikTok Shop
is emerging as attractive distribution channel at significantly lower
commissions than traditional wholesale margins, a notable margin tailwind
versus brick-and-mortar. In order to support the NA growth journey, tonies
hired Mark McColgan as new NA General Manager, a former executive at Mattel
US.

Further market expansion in the cards. While focus is currently on gaining
traction in the US, the company indicated that further market entries are
possible in the years to come (eNuW: from FY27e onwards). Mind you, the
company has developed 20 Spanish-language figurines that are actively being
purchased by Spanish-speaking parents in the US, a clear signal of organic,
data-driven demand that de-risks potential market entries.

Exceptional engagement & brand metrics. Even at ~50% household penetration
in DACH, the growth runway remains intact: customers purchase on average 20
figurines over 4.5 years, implying double-digit recurring revenue potential
even in a fully mature market. In the US, an NPS of 77, surpassing Apple,
Netflix, and Amazon, underpins tonies' word-of-mouth flywheel. Parents are
proactively downloading the app simply to check for new figurine releases, a
powerful indicator of ecosystem stickiness. Notably, tonies was the
most-downloaded app globally during the holiday season, a remarkable
achievement for a physical toy company.

Massive content portfolio, a significant moat. The total figurine catalogue
has grown to 1,300, though not all are in active production. Management
applies rigorous SKU discipline: underperforming figurines are discontinued.
Two major launches are confirmed for summer 2026: Monopoly (via Hasbro) and
Pokémon. In fact, tonies has reached a state where licensors approach the
companies to better promote their brands.

CMD in June, the next major catalyst. The CMD should deliver mid-term
financial targets, capital allocation clarity and a roadmap for
US/international margins converging toward DACH's 23% EBITDA level.
Management expressed explicit confidence in reaching ~20% EBITDA margins
internationally, a significant step-up from current levels.

BUY with an unchanged EUR 14.50 PT based on DCF.


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https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=62703a0f85e10ae4fdcce40f392cda1b
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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2317266 29.04.2026 CET/CEST

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