Märkte & Kurse

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Original-Research: MAX Automation SE - from NuWays AG

21.03.2025 / 09:06 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to MAX Automation SE

     Company Name:                MAX Automation SE
     ISIN:                        DE000A2DA588

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              Buy
     from:                        21.03.2025
     Target price:                E'UR 7.00
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Konstantin Völk

Mixed FY24 due to investment reluctance in automotive; Chg.

Topic: MAX published mixed FY24 numbers roughly in line with our
expectations. Further, management released a conservative FY25e guidance due
to the cyclical nature of the business and a volatile order
intake due to macro-economic insecurity. However, in the long-run the
investment case remains fully intact. FY24 sales declined 7.9% yoy to EUR 366m
(eNuW: EUR 361m) as a result of investment reluctance due to
macroeconomic uncertainties especially in the automotive sector. Q4 sales
decreased 13.6% yoy to EUR 93m (eNuW: EUR 88m).

Order intake came in at EUR 314m, 7.9% below last year, leading to a
noticeable reduction in order backlog to EUR 154m (EUR 206m in FY23). Demand was
in particular soft for bdtronic (-28%) and NSM + Jücker (-25%), both with
material exposure to automotive. For instance, new registrations of
battery-electric vehicles in Germany recorded a decline of 27% last year.
Nevertheless, MAX's largest holding Vecoplan (45% of sales) increased order
intake by 7.2% to EUR 155m thanks to strong demand in the Recycling/ Waste
segment and despite uncertainties in the North American market.

FY24 EBITDA decreased by 15.3% yoy to EUR 29.3m (eNuW: EUR 30.1m) due to a lower
top-line and an increase in personnel costs which amounted to 35.2% of total
operating performance (vs. 30.1% in FY23). This was despite a positive
one-time effect of EUR 4.5m from a litigation in connection with the sale of
NSM Packtec in 2018. The FY EBITDA margin decreased by 0.7ppts yoy to a
still solid 8.0% considering the current macro-economic environment. Q4
EBITDA came in at EUR 4.4m, a 32% decrease yoy (4.7% margin, -1.3ppts).

Bdtronic's sales decreased by only 9.7% yoy to EUR 94m (eNuW: EUR 90m) despite a
significant drop in order ntake during 9M'24 thanks to a strong order
backlog at the beginning of the year. Due to the decrease in backlog (EUR 34m
vs EUR 52m end of FY23), the FY25e top-line will be more dependent on new
demand. Although Q4 showed a solid order intake of EUR 25m, we remain cautious
in the short-term as the uncertainty in the automotive sector is still high
and many Tier 1 supplier and OEMs hesitate to invest in larger projects.
EBITDA decreased sharply by 75% yoy burdened by an increase in headcount
(559 employees on average vs. 480 in FY23), a high share of external
personnel and project delays which resulted in higher costs in the
impregnation segment. However, costly external personnel which was hired in
FY23 in response to the rapid increase in demand was significantly reduced
during FY24e and will not be a material factor for FY25e. Further, the
delayed and unprofitable projects in the impregnation segment should only
contribute slightly to sales in the current year. Thus, we are cautiously
optimistic about bdtronic's profitability this year.

Vecoplan's sales came in at EUR 165m, 7.5% below last year created by
investment reluctance in the North American market (44% of FY24 sales) and
project delays. On a positive note, order intake rose by 7.2% yoy thanks to
a market recovery in the Recycling/Waste segment. EBITDA decreased by 14.2%
yoy to EUR 17.5m due to an increase in headcount and an unfavorable product
mix. Going into FY25e, we expect a stable top-line (eNuW: EUR 169m) and EBITDA
development (EUR 18m).

FY25e guidance: Management released a broad guidance range for FY25e which
reflects the lower visibility for H2'25e due to a lower order backlog as
well as the currently unpredictable economic policy in the US. Sales are
expected to come in between EUR 340-400m (eNuW: EUR 364m) and EBITDA between EUR
21-28m (eNuW: EUR 24.9m), which looks plausible in our view.

Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 7.00, based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32036.pdf
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2104156 21.03.2025 CET/CEST

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