Märkte & Kurse

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Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group SE - from NuWays AG

01.08.2024 / 09:01 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
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Classification of NuWays AG to Marley Spoon Group SE

     Company Name:               Marley Spoon Group SE
     ISIN:                       LU2380748603

     Reason for the research:    Update
     Recommendation:             BUY
     Target price:               EUR 5.40
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                    Mark Schüssler

Solid Q2 results // FY'24 guidance confirmed; chg.

Marley Spoon Group ('MSG') released solid Q2'24 results with sales coming in
at EUR 87m, +1% yoy (excluding bistroMD c. EUR 80m; eNuW: EUR 78m). As
anticipated, cautious consumer behavior in the meal-kit segment continued to
weigh on sales as the number of active subscribers fell 17% yoy to 195k
(eNuW: 194k) - the effect of which was more pronounced for Europe and
Australia than for the US - while revenue from bistroMD partially offset
this decline and had a noticeable impact on Q2'24 group sales of c. EUR 7m
(eNuW).

Importantly, after a stabilizing Q1, MSG continued to observe bottoming-out
effects in its subscriber base (+1% qoq) as well as a recovery in both order
frequency (+2% qoq to 6.6; +5% yoy) and basket size (+5% qoq to EUR 67; +16%
yoy) indicating a somewhat measured but steady return to healthy KPI levels.
This positive development was overwhelmingly driven by (1) a higher-quality
subscriber base with enhanced retention levels on the back of a rectified
voucher strategy in H2'23, (2) higher-priced and larger-sized plan items and
(3) a consumer sentiment that is beginning to stabilize.

While topline headwinds persisted, MSG managed to yet again expand its
industry-leading contribution margin in Q2 to 34.6% (+3ppts yoy, eNuW: 32%)
on account of reduced voucher and promotional activity and first cost
savings in fulfilment (-8% yoy to EUR 12.2m) as a result of the FreshRealm
partnership. Notably, for a third quarter in a row, MSG was able to
translate a higher contribution margin into a solid positive operating
EBITDA margin (EUR 1.1m or 1.2% for Q2) impacted by a more streamlined G&A
setup (-12% yoy to c. EUR 18.5m).

This overall healthy Q2 performance led the company to confirm its FY'24
guidance, expecting sales to grow by a single-digit percentage figure and a
flat contribution margin of c. 31.5%, with operating EBITDA seen to grow to
a positive mid-single-digit figure. While, in our view, this guidance looks
achievable aided by operational progress towards group profitability, we
nonetheless note that the sales recovery to former levels as well as the
operational cost downsizing might take longer than expected and therefore
reduce our estimates accordingly. Having said that and considering the
depressed level at which MSG shares are currently trading at, we reaffirm
the attractive risk reward proposition.

We reiterate our BUY rating with a changed PT of EUR 5.40, based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/30337.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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1958687 01.08.2024 CET/CEST

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