Märkte & Kurse

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Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG

30.07.2024 / 09:21 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
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Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

     Company Name:               MLP SE
     ISIN:                       DE0006569908

     Reason for the research:    Update
     Recommendation:             BUY
     from:                       30.07.2024
     Target price:               EUR 11.50
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                    Henry Wendisch

Q2 EBIT above estimates, guidance specified at upper end

Yesterday, MLP released an ad-hoc with its preliminary Q2 EBIT and specified
its FY EBIT guidance towards the upper half. In detail:

Q2 EBIT significantly above last year: Q2's preliminary EBIT came in at EUR
12m, +135% yoy (eNuW: EUR 11m; H1 EBIT: EUR 49m, +31% yoy). The main drivers
were performance fees (amount undisclosed; eNuW: EUR 4.2m) and continued
tailwinds from the interest rate business. Moreover, last year's EBIT was
burdened by a negative EUR 2.8m one-off, thus serving as an easy comparable
base.

Performance Fees are back: some of FERI's funds have exceeded their old HWM
and hurdle rate on June 28th, which should have led to EUR 4.2m in performance
fees for Q2 (see update from 11th July 2024). Moreover, AuMs should also
have reached new records (eNuW: EUR 60.5bn, up 7% yoy vs. EUR 59.3bn in Q1),
which is especially favorable for MLP, as it serves as a higher base for
recurring revenues, which should increase profitability in wealth management
due to operating leverage.

Banking to have remained strong: given that the ECB only lowered interest
rates towards the end of Q2, the second quarter could almost fully benefit
from ongoing strong interest income. Against strong interest income of EUR
20.3m (+29% yoy and -9% qoq; recorded as sales) we also expect heightend
interest expense of EUR 8.2m (+ 105% yoy and -6% qoq; recorded as OPEX), which
should have led to an EBITeffective net interest income of EUR 12.1m (+3% yoy)
in Q2, in our view. Going forward, we conservatively assume an interest rate
cut by 25bps in mid Q3 to 4.00% and another 25bps reduction to 3.75% in Q4,
leading to an estimated net interest income of EUR 48m (+1.4% yoy) for FY'24e.
(see p. 2 for details)

Guidance specified at upper end, but still conservative: with yesterday's
ad-hoc, MLP also specified its EUR 7585m EBIT guidance towards the upper half
(i.e., EUR 80-85m). Nevertheless, we expect a guidance beat (eNuW: EUR 90m;
eCons: EUR 85m) due to (1) the later than previously anticipated ECB rate
reduction (2) an ongoing recovery in real-estate from low levels and (3) the
higher than expected AuMs which should lead to increasing sales in wealth
management.

All in all, solid results and a slight beat of our Q2 EBIT estimate. Thus,
we reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged PT of EUR 11.50, based on
FCFY'24e and SOTP.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/30315.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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1956743 30.07.2024 CET/CEST

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