05.01.2024-
Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY
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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - von NuWays AG
Einstufung von NuWays AG zu ZEAL Network SE
Unternehmen: ZEAL Network SE
ISIN: DE000ZEAL241
Anlass der Studie: Update
Empfehlung: BUY
seit: 05.01.2024
Kursziel: 51
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Online transformation with ongoing momentum
Topic: Yesterday, the state lottery operator DLTB released its 2023 lottery
data, revealing a continuous and strong outperformance of the online
distribution channel.
Online transformation in full swing: In total, lottery players played for
c. EUR 2bn via online channels, marking a solid 10.4% growth and 25% online
penetration in 2023. While brick-and-mortar lottery still accounted for
75% of overall lottery stakes, it could only grow by 0.7% yoy. Hence, the
online transformation remains in full swing and still offers plenty of
growth potential for ZEAL's lottery business, as online penetration still
stands at a mere 25% (vs. 23% in 2022). Going forward, we expect this trend
to continue and catch up to penetration rates of other industries (online
banking: 50%; online music: 80%; online holiday booking: 66%) and other
European countries such as Sweden (48% online penetration and +11% yoy
growth of online in 2022).
Slight outperformance against main competitor: Out of the EUR 2.04bn online
billings, ZEAL should make up a market share of 41.2% in 2023 (vs. 41% in
2022), based on our estimate of EUR 841m billings in FY23e. This implies a
growth rate of 11% yoy, slightly outgrowing the state lottery's landing
page Lotto.de and the federal states' online presences (EUR 1.2bn in
billings, +10% yoy).
Strong current trading due to peaking jackpots. Currently, the jackpots of
both major lottery products are close to record levels resulting in an
increasing user activity. We hence expect solid Q4'23e figures that should
reflect the higher activity levels. Even better, the EuroJackpot currently
peaks at EUR 120m and the Lotto 6aus49 reached its highest jackpot in history
of EUR 48m (EUR 50m maximum jackpot, before Nov' 23: EUR 45m) indicating a strong
start into Q1'24e. Mind you that this is the time, when ZEAL acquires most
of its new users and hence increases marketing activities.
Games roll-out to drive top line in FY'24e: Following the better than
expected first full quarter (Q3'23) of the new Games business, we expect an
improved Q4'23e as well as continous expansion of the rollout throughout
the year, In sum, we expect some additional revenue from Games of EUR 10m,
that comes on top of the intact growth of the lottery business (eNuW: EUR
119m, +12% yoy) for FY'24e.
All in all, ZEAL continues to drive the online transformation while the
Games roll-out should serve as a cherry on top. BUY with unchanged PT of EUR
51.00, based on DCF.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28613.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
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