Märkte & Kurse

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Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG

28.07.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

     Company Name:                tonies SE
     ISIN:                        LU2333563281

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 18.5
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Christian Sandherr

Toniebox Lite unveiled; launch already in August

tonies announced the launch of Toniebox Lite, a smaller and lighter version
of its flagship TB2, delivering the core listening experience while being
compatible with all Tonies ever released.

At $ 79.99 (bundled with one Tonie), the Lite comes at roughly half the
price of TB2 ($ 149.99), marking a substantially lower entry point into the
ecosystem. The device launches first in North America, with pre-orders via
tonies.com and walmart.com, in-store availability at Walmart from August 22
and further NA channels to follow through September and October. The UK,
Ireland, Australia and New Zealand will follow in fall 2026. Launches in
DACH and France are expected in 2027 at the earliest, partly reflecting the
already high penetration of the installed base within the relevant customer
group.

Limited cannibalization risk, in our view. While the price gap might raise
cannibalization concerns at first glance, we regard the two devices as
clearly complementary rather than substitutive. The Lite deliberately lacks
TB2's key differentiators (e.g. Tonieplay gaming and light ring), keeping
TB2 the clear first choice for the primary device at home. Instead, the Lite
should predominantly address (1) existing households buying a second box for
travel, grandparents' homes or siblings, incremental demand that would
otherwise largely not materialize at $ 149.99 and (2) price-sensitive
first-time buyers who would not have entered the ecosystem at TB2's price
point in the first place. In both cases, the sale is additive rather than
substitutive.

Feeding the flywheel. Most importantly, every additional device sold
enlarges the installed base, driving high-margin figurine sales in a
subscription-like manner, regardless of whether the box costs $ 79.99 or $
149.99. Notably, the lower hardware price should hence be more than
compensated by the high-margin attach revenues it unlocks. With the Lite
hitting shelves right ahead of the all-important Christmas quarter and
alongside blockbuster content launches (Pokémon, Bluey), the setup for H2
strengthens further, rendering the FY26 guidance (group sales >20% yoy cc,
NA sales >30% yoy cc) increasingly conservative, in our view.

Our take: Another proof point of the tonies thesis; a category-defining
ecosystem evolving from a single-product hardware player into a multi-device
platform with subscription-like repurchase behaviour and a content moat
licensors now chase. The Lite meaningfully expands the funnel into that
ecosystem, particularly in the underpenetrated US (12% household penetration
vs 58% in DACH). Moreover, the initial retail exclusivity with Walmart
should further strengthen the partnership with tonies likely accelerating
the roll-out across physical stores and potentially increasing shelf space
(eNuW).

BUY with an unchanged EUR 18.50 PT based on DCF.



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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2372368 28.07.2026 CET/CEST

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