Märkte & Kurse

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Original-Research: Hoenle AG - from NuWays AG

23.07.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Hoenle AG

     Company Name:                Hoenle AG
     ISIN:                        DE0005157101

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 14
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Sarah Hellemann

FY25/26 guidance cut related to demand softness in Curing

Yesterday, hoenle announced a guidance cut for the current FY 25/26 on
account of weaker-than-anticipated demand in Curing. In detail:

Anticipating flat-ish FY 25/26 revenue development, management has reduced
and narrowed its implied sales growth projection from to -1.8% to 1.4% yoy
growth (old: 1.4% to 12.1% yoy growth). In absolute terms, FY 25/26 revenue
guidance shifted from EUR 95-105m to EUR 92-95m. While Adhesives and
Disinfection continue to deliver on growth, Curing looks set to remain a
weak contributor. We attribute the weak performance in particular to soft
investment demand from customers in the printing industry. In our view, the
new revenue guidance looks achievable.

FY 25/26 EBITDA guidance now tilted to a decrease yoy (EUR 5-6m instead of EUR
6-9m). This reflects the reduced sales expectations while also leaving room
for negative one-offs, given current developments such as the insolvency of
Manroland Sheetfed GmbH in early March. The upper end of the guidance is
supported by restructuring efforts in Curing from FY 24/25, ongoing
efficiency and product portfolio optimization in Adhesive Solutions and
clear growth ambitions in Disinfection, especially concerning the water
purification solutions. In our opinion, the new EBITDA guidance looks rather
conservative, as it seems to factor in potential downside risks and one-off
effects despite several operational initiatives that could support earnings
throughout the year.

Expectations on Adhesives and Disinfection unchanged. hoenle has clearly
outlined that it continues to expect both sales and earnings growth from
Adhesives and Disinfection. This is supported by H1 figures, with sales
growth of 1.8% yoy in Adhesives and 7.8% yoy in Disinfection as well as
EBITDA growth of 18.1% yoy in Adhesives and 8.5% yoy in Disinfection. For
FY25/26 we continue to forecast a combined sales growth of 6.3% yoy for
these business units to EUR 64m, while combined EBITDA is seen to come in 6.8%
higher yoy at EUR 6.4m.

Adjusting our estimates on Curing. Given the weak development in H1 25/26
(sales -19% yoy) and a negative EBITDA contribution of EUR 1.4m, compared to EUR
-0.6m in FY24/25 and a dimmed outlook, we lower our FY25/26 forecast on
Curing. Client investment reluctance is proving more persistent than
anticipated at the start of the year, especially in the printing industry.
Instead of a 5% yoy sales decline and a slightly positive EUR 0.4m EBITDA, we
now project sales to fall 13% yoy to EUR 29m with a negative EUR 0.4m EBITDA
contribution (FY 24/25: EUR -0.2m). As the demand recovery from product
innovations and a stronger push into non-printing end markets is clearly
delayed, we also cut our sales growth estimates to 4% yoy for FY 26/27e
(old: 9%) and 6% yoy for FY 27/28e (old: 9%).

Reducing our FY 25/26 forecast. As indicated by changes outlined above, we
reduce our full year estimates to EUR 93.1m in sales (eNuW: -0.6% yoy) and EUR
6m in EBITDA (eNuW), implying a 0.2pp improvement on the EBITDA margin to
6.4%. Notably, this brings our net income expectation for FY 25/26 to EUR
-1.4m (eNuW), still reflecting a net income improvement over EUR -3.1m in FY
24/25.

The investment case remains intact, supported by product innovation in
pipeline across segments, further product portfolio optimizations and
internal process improvements. Despite the delayed improvement in Curing, we
see moderate to strong sales growth driven by Adhesives and Disinfection.
Maintaining BUY with a reduced PT of EUR 14 (old: EUR 15), based on DCF.


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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2370352 23.07.2026 CET/CEST

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