20.07.2026-
Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY
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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG
20.07.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE
Company Name: ZEAL Network SE
ISIN: DE000ZEAL241
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 83
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Simon Keller
On a winning streak; chg. est. & PT
A favourable jackpot environment should drive a strong Q2 and, on early Q3
data, looks set to continue; the newly announced SevenCanyon acquisition
adds a cheap, well-understood growth leg in the UK; and the July loosening
of German online slot stakes provides a further regulatory tailwind.
Jackpots are back as a tailwind, and this time Lotto did the heavy lifting.
Total Eurojackpot stakes rose c. 3% yoy in Q2, with two peak jackpots, the
same as a year ago. The real swing came from Lotto 6/49: stakes jumped c.
23% yoy as the lottery reached its EUR 50m cap for the first time under the
current jackpot rules and did not let go, producing 11 peak-jackpot draws
over the quarter. Remarkable for a lottery that typically loses ground to
Eurojackpot given its lower headline and second-tier prizes, and its
extended run at the cap materially lifted market activity: in aggregate, the
German lottery market grew c. 11% yoy, the support that Q1 lacked. In its
lottery business, ZEAL is seen to outgrow the market by c. 13pp (eNuW),
driven by ongoing online penetration, share gains and stronger customer
activation in high-jackpot phases, where it can deploy its full marketing
playbook as well as support from growth in proprietary raffles.
For ZEAL, 24% yoy billings growth should translate disproportionately into
sales (+30% yoy; both eNuW), as billings margins look set to benefit from
mix: more profitable team play (Tippgemeinschaften) in high-jackpot phases
and, structurally, a rising share of higher-margin social lotteries. EBITDA
should grow at a similar c. 27% rate yoy, as higher marketing spending for
proprietary formats is seen to absorb the operating leverage (eNuW, more
details on p. 2).
UK entry via attractive acquisition. ZEAL agreed to acquire the remaining
96.5% of SevenCanyon, a leading UK prize-draw operator it has known from the
inside as a minority investor since 2018. Customers buy tickets for digital
draws of cars, houses and lifestyle prizes, similar to ZEAL's own Traumhaus
and Traumauto model, but in Europe's largest market (c. EUR 1.5bn billings, >
7m players). The deal thus creates a second home market and further reduces
dependence on the German jackpot cycle. Mid-term, ZEAL's marketing playbook
meets a fragmented field of 400+ mostly young operators, while its
compliance DNA should turn into a moat once this lightly regulated market
formalises. The purchase price of up to c. EUR 45m (incl. earn-out) is fully
debt-financed via a new EUR 40m term loan. We expect c. EUR 30m sales and c. EUR
8m EBITDA in 2027 (eNuW), implying c. 5.6x EV/EBITDA against ZEAL's own c.
13x: EPS and multiple accretive from the first full year of consolidation.
In FY26 (six months of consolidation), one-off costs are seen to offset the
EBITDA contribution (eNuW).
Higher stakes in slots. Regulation is turning into a tailwind, working both
ends of channelisation. The carrot: since 1 July, the per-spin stake limit
for licensed virtual slots rose from a flat EUR 1 to a EUR 1-5 model. Under-21s
stay at EUR 1, over-21s can be cleared for EUR 3, and EUR 5 requires 90 days
without signs of problematic play. The stick: the pending Second Amendment
State Treaty will oblige internet providers to block unlicensed gambling
sites (DNS blocking). The prize: c. 23% of the online gambling market is
still unlicensed (2024, source: GGL). ZEAL is on the whitelist, with >650
games ready to absorb returning players. The parallel review of the EUR 1,000
monthly deposit limit adds further monetisation opportunities. Games remains
small at c. 7% of group sales, but the direction of travel is clearly
supportive.
BUY, PT EUR 83 (old: EUR 80), based on DCF. Estimate and PT changes reflect the
accretive acquisition.
You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=94e6d7c95912ab8a192bca585a3e5453
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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