Märkte & Kurse

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Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG

06.02.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
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Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

     Company Name:                MLP SE
     ISIN:                        DE0006569908

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              Buy
     from:                        06.02.2025
     Target price:                EUR 12.50
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Henry Wendisch

FY'25e outlook: RE recovery and new mid-term targets

Solid Q4 results at top end of FY'24 guidance ahead: For Q4 results (due
Mar' 13th), we expect sales to arrive flat yoy at EUR 289m, whereas EBIT
should expand by 11% to EUR 28m as we expect lower D&A of EUR 9m (vs. EUR 12m in
Q4'23, thereof EUR 4m goodwill impairment at Deutschland.Immobilien). This
puts our FY'24e EBIT estimate of EUR 95m (+33% yoy), at the top-end of the new
FY'24 guidance range of EUR 85-95m.

20% dividend increase likely: Given MLP's target payout ratio of 50-70%
(eNuW: 60%) and our estimated EPS of EUR 0.64, we expect FY'24 dividend
proposal of EUR 0.36 per share (+ 20% yoy; 6% yield). Mind you, the dividend
is tax-free under § 27 KStG.

Old mid-term targets to become new FY'25e guidance: This year, MLP's

mid-term targets of EUR 100-110m EBIT (eNuW: EUR 102m), EUR 62-68bn AuM (eNuW: EUR

63bn) and a non-life insurance volume of EUR 730-810m (eNuW: EUR 780m) are due
and will become the FY'25e guidance, which should be well in reach.

New mid-term targets to be announced: Also on March 13th, MLP will announce
new mid-term targets, which the CFO said are 'as ambitious as the previous
mid-term targets', potentially serving as a share price catalyst.

Changing mix in EBIT drivers for FY'25e: While FY'24e EBIT stood under an
strong contribution from performance fees (eNuW: EUR 28m; 9M'24: EUR 26m), we do
not assume a similar development for FY'25e although it could be possible.
On the other hand, the still negative real estate segment
Deutschland.Immobilien (eNuW: EUR -14m EBIT in FY'24e), should benefit from a
noticeable market recovery (e.g. the recent announcement of a brokerage
partnership with Dutch RE developer Ten Brinke Group for a EUR 160m RE
portfolio). As confirmed by management multiple times and also expected by
us, this segment is seen to return to EBIT breakt-even in FY'25e (eNuW: EUR
16m EBIT increase from RE). The remaining segments should show similar
profitabilies in FY'25e, except for FERI, whose FY'24 EBIT will mark a tough
comparable base due to the EUR 18m EBIT effect of performance fees
(eNuW) in FY'24e and us not assuming significant performance fees for
FY'25e. - see p. 2 for details

Following the operational development, MLP's valuation should catch up
accordingly. Therefore, the stock remains one of our Alpha Ideas and we
reiterate out BUY recommendation with unchanged PT of EUR 12.50, based on
FCFY'24e and SOTP.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31711.pdf
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2082069 06.02.2025 CET/CEST

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